WrestleMania XXVIII thoughts

WrestleMania XXVIII
 

Now over two weeks late on this, but here are my thoughts on this year's WrestleMania. In general, it was a pretty solid show. The unfortunate trend of wasting time on pop music acts continues. When I buy a pay-per-view or attend an event, I'm there to see wrestling. Do not waste the time on this crap when it could be devoted to the Daniel Bryan-Sheamus match. Overall, I give this year's WM a six out of ten. Not the best, but better than last year. 

WWE Championship

CM Punk (c) vs. Chris Jericho

Match rating: Three and a half stars.

When you take away the rather pointless build-up and actually let these two wrestle, you get a great match. There was a good pace, lots of back and forth, and a good ending with Punk making Jericho tap out to the Anaconda Vice. Punk establishes that he is the Best in the World. Too bad he didn't actually get to close out the show. 

Winner: CM Punk (retains WWE Championship)

World Heavyweight Championship

Daniel Bryan (c) vs. Sheamus

Match rating: One and a half stars.

Ridiculous. First, that they again start out WrestleMania with a World title match (isn't this enough to indicate that two World champions are no longer necessary?). Second, Sheamus squashes Bryan in 18 seconds to win the title. If you had been 10 minutes late getting into the arena, you would have missed this entire thing. Horrible. The aftermatch has been good though as Daniel Bryan's heel personality has really caught fire. I suspect he'll find his way back to the championship within the next year.

Winner: Sheamus (New World Heavyweight Champion)

John Cena vs. The Rock

Match rating: Three and a half stars.

This match did not disappoint.  The Rock and Cena both showed up to entertain and they definitely did.  The ending was great with Cena teasing that he was going to hit The People's Elbow only to be met with a Rock Bottom.  Pretty surprised that The Rock won since Cena's the one they really need to make strong going forward.  Maybe they are building towards a SummerSlam rematch?  Winner: The Rock

Hell in a Cell - The End of an Era

Undertaker vs. Triple H

Special Guest Referee: Shawn Michaels

Match rating: Four stars.

Like last year's WrestleMania, this match stole the show.  While it was clear that Undertaker was going to end up with the win, the manner in which they got there was thrilling.  In the early goings of the match, it was clear that HBK had nothing to do.  In Hell in a Cell, the referee's only job is to count the 1-2-3 or submission.  So Shawn ended up bouncing around and grimacing a lot.  Newly en-mohawked Undertaker took some brutal chair shots to the back leaving horrible bruises and welts up and down his back.  Looked pretty painful.  Despite their advancing age, Undertaker and Triple H both tore down the house.  The last images of this End of an Era match was great as Shawn and Undertaker helped Triple H walk to the back and the three of them shared a hug on the big stage.  Maybe Undertaker will call it a career at 20-0 at WrestleMania.  You will notice that he is no longer part of the SmackDown video montage.  Triple H seems like he's comfortable where he is on the business part of WWE so this truly was the End of an Era. 

Winner: The Undertaker

Intercontinental Championship

Cody Rhodes (c) vs. Big Show

Match rating: Three stars.

Given that Big Show is often offered up for the slaughter at WrestleMania, it was nice to see him prevail over the excellent Cody Rhodes.  Honestly, having Big Show as Intercontinental Champion doesn't really do anything for him or the title.  The IC Title belongs on up and comers like Rhodes, Dolph Ziggler, or Jack Swagger.  Big Show is a multitime World Champion so I don't expect him to hang onto the IC Title for very long.  But Cody and Show seem to have a good chemistry going so maybe they can squeeze out a few more matches. 

Winner: Big Show (new Intercontinental Champion)

Kane vs. Randy Orton

Match rating: Two and a half stars.

A bit of a throwaway match.  Nothing super memorable about it.  Certainly Orton and Kane are both veterans who can put on a decent match but their feud is a little dry.  Surprised to see Kane get the win here, but it doesn't really amount to much.  Expect Orton to re-enter the World title hunt soon after this feud ends. 

Winner: Kane

General Manager 12 Man Tag Team for Control of RAW and SmackDown

Team Johnny vs. Team Teddy

Match rating: Two stars.

Serving the role of fitting in as many of the other WWE Superstars that didn't have a major feud was this match.  Also unmemorable.  But the win by Team Johnny makes the most sense story-wise.  Good to see that The Miz get the win for Team Johnny over Zack Ryder and at least contribute to the show (you know, the show that he headlined last year and won the Main Event).  This actually begs the question of which main eventer for the previous year's WrestleMania had the biggest fall from grace?  King Kong Bundy went from the Main Event at WrestleMania 2 to fighting Big John Studd and a couple of little people at WM3.  Sgt. Slaughter was WWF Champion at WM7 and then was in an 8 man tag match at WM8 against Repo Man, The Mountie, and the Nasty Boys.  Let me think about this some more... 

Winner: Team Johnny [David Otunga (Captain), Mark Henry, Dolph Ziggler, Jack Swagger, The Miz, & Drew McIntyre]

Kelly Kelly & Maria Menounous vs. Beth Phoenix & Eve

Match rating: Half a star.

I don't remember anything about this match at all.  Wait, I think Maria Menounous won the match for her team by pinning the Divas Champion Beth Phoenix.  Ridiculous. 

Winner: Maria and Kelly

Summary: Again, overall, not a bad show.  More emphasis on the World Title matches would have been nice.  Beyond John Cena, CM Punk, Sheamus, and Randy Orton, WWE needs to start filling the holes for legit faces that Triple H and Undertaker leave behind.  There is a huge swelling of excellent heels in WWE (Alberto del Rio, Daniel Bryan, Christian, Dolph Ziggler, Jack Swagger, The Miz, Kane, Cody Rhodes, Chris Jericho, Mark Henry) and they need faces to feud with.  The returning Brock Lesnar looks like he's leaning heel (but will probably end up a tweener).  I think WWE can expect a good year as a few of their midcard superstars are catching fire (Daniel Bryan) or seem to be on the brink (Ziggler, Rhodes).  

WrestleMania XXVIII - This Sunday!

WrestleMania XXVIII

I am concerned about this year's WrestleMania.

Not necessarily about the card because on paper it looks awesome. However, the build up has been lacking. Last night's "Go Home" (the last show before a big event) episode of RAW missed the mark on several angles. It didn't really do anything except add some new members to Teams Johnny and Teddy.

WWE Championship

CM Punk (c) vs. Chris Jericho

Where has Jericho been for the past THREE weeks? All he's done in the build-up to his WWE Title match with CM Punk is run down Punk's family via satellite with his Lite Brite jacket. No physical confrontations. Not even a chance for Punk to give a live rebuttal. Jericho hasn't done much since his return to prove that he's the best in the world. WWE could have had Jericho go on a prolonged win streak over the past month but instead have had had him on the bench. Is he nursing an injury we don't know about? Not that invested? Either way, without him showing any fire, I can't really see WWE taking the title off of Punk. Hopefully, they turn it up on Sunday.

Predicted percent chance of winning: CM Punk (85%) – Chris Jericho (15%)

World Heavyweight Championship

Daniel Bryan (c) vs. Sheamus

Surprisingly, this is the World title match that has been getting a proper build. Daniel's too hot these days to take the belt off him and it looks like they're leaning towards giving AJ a run with the Divas Championship so they can play a "Golden Couple" angle. I expect Daniel Bryan to hang on to the title for a few more months. Sadly, if my predictions are good, then we'll go through another WrestleMania without any major title changes.

Percentage chance they win: Daniel Bryan (70%) – Sheamus (30%)

John Cena vs. The Rock

This lead in still leaves me cold. All talk, no action. I have no doubt that Rock and Cena will do their best to live up to the hype. I think the momentum swings back to Cena before WrestleMania if only because The Rock has gotten the better of him for the past year and there's no real reason to sacrifice WWE's biggest star for the sake of The Rock. Oh and Cena's comment last night about needing to win because "no one ever remembers second place"? Untrue at WrestleMania. Shawn Michaels was on the losing end of classic matches with Kurt Angle and the Undertaker and everyone remembers his efforts. But that's HBK.

Predicted percent chance of winning: John Cena (60%) – The Rock (40%)

Hell in a Cell - The End of an Era

Undertaker vs. Triple H

Special Guest Referee: Shawn Michaels

Just a promo this week for Undertaker vs. Triple H. We skipped it because we're probably going to have to watch it again on Sunday. Should be another good match.

Predicted percent chance of winning: Undertaker (100%) – Triple H (0%)

Intercontinental Championship

Cody Rhodes (c) vs. Big Show

I hope they pay off this match with a feel good Big Show win. Show is often used as the special attraction at WrestleMania and seems to always take one for the team (thus leading to several losses). He almost never gets to shine and at the age of 40, he may not have that many years left as an active competitor. He deserves a win.

Predicted percent chance of winning: Cody Rhodes (30%) – Big Show (70%)

Kane vs. Randy Orton

The sooner his feud ends, the better. Not the worst, but definitely not the best. Orton needs a change of scenery. If drafted back to RAW, imagine feuds he could have with The Miz, del Rio, Ziggler, and Swagger?

Predicted percent chance of winning: Kane (30%) – Randy Orton (70%)

General Manager 12 Man Tag Team for Control of RAW and SmackDown

Team Johnny vs. Team Teddy

Team John Laurinitas: David Otunga (Captain), Mark Henry, Dolph Ziggler, Jack Swagger, The Miz, Drew McIntyre

Team Teddy Long: Santino Marella (Captain), R-Truth, Kofi Kingston, The Great Khali, Zack Ryder, Booker T

First, last night Christian was 'injured' by CM Punk, thus taking him off the card on Sunday. It appears that they were hoping that his ankle injury was healed enough to go, but apparently not. Taking his place on Team Johnny is Drew McIntyre. Does this mean that Drew is finally out of the WWE doghouse? He's been languishing in relative obscurity since the end of 2010. McIntyre has a lot of potential but seems to have struggled to take the next step.

Also added to Team Johnny is The Miz. You know, the same guy who headlined and won the main event of last year's WrestleMania. Quite a fall for the Awesome One, but not everyone can be pushed to the top all the time.

Team Teddy did the super terrible job of filling his team with Zack Ryder and The Great Khali. Also added to the mix was Booker T. The Zack Ryder experiment has run its course, Khali can barely move around in the ring, and Booker is semi retired. Team Teddy's captain is a comic relief act. The only good things about this team are Kofi and R-Truth. Not enough to overcome Laurinitas. Good luck, Teddy.

Side to side, Team Johnny should win on Sunday based on talent. Miz, Ziggler, and Swagger are the future of WWE. Mark Henry continues to be a convincing monster. Don't really have a read on Otunga yet. McIntyre is a bit of an afterthought.

Predicted percent chance of winning: Team Teddy (20%) – Team Johnny (80%)

Kelly Kelly & Maria Menounous vs. Beth Phoenix & Eve

Bathroom break match. Only interesting is Kharma gets involved.

Predicted percent chance of winning: Maria & Kelly (20%) – Beth & Eve (80%)

WWE Hall of Fame

Overlooked this year is the Hall of Fame. Here are this year's inductees:

Edge - inducted by Christian

This will be the first WrestleMania since 2008 that Edge will not be involved a main event match due to his medical retirement. An obvious Hall of Famer though I'm surprised WWE didn't trot him out in the weeks leading to WM just to give him a little momentum.

The Four Horsemen - inducted by Dusty Rhodes

Ric Flair, Arn Anderson, Tully Blanchard, Barry Windham, & manager JJ Dillon. Flair will be on loan from TNA over WrestleMania weekend and becomes the first double inductee. The Four Horsemen were one of the top stables in wrestling history. Arn Anderson should be inducted on his own some day.

Ron Simmons - inducted by JBL

The first African American World champion. Multitime Tag Team champion with JBL as the APA. Also star Florida State football player.

Yokozuna - inducted by Jey & Jimmy Uso

A posthumous induction, this massive yet agile superstar won the WWE Championship twice besting Bret Hart at WrestleMania IX and banishing Hulk Hogan to WCW for nine years.

Mil Mascaras - inducted by Alberto del Rio

A legendary luchador in Mexico and also the uncle of Alberto del Rio

Mike Tyson (Celebrity Wing) - inducted by Shawn Michaels and Triple H

At WrestleMania XIV, he was the special enforcer for the Shawn Michaels/Stone Cold WWF Title match. Leading into WM, Tyson joined DX and HBK looked like he had the match all sewn up. Of course it wouldn't go down like that and Tyson would actually end up aligned with Austin in the end.

OK, that's it! Hopefully there are some unforgettable WrestleMania moments coming our way!

WrestleMania XXVIII - 12 days away

WrestleMania XXVIII

Some new matches to talk about. Does it seem odd to anyone else that WWE doesn't seem to be pushing the Hall of Fame very much this year? Do you even remember who's being inducted?

WWE Championship

CM Punk (c) vs. Chris Jericho

The Alcoholic Destiny bit that Jericho's pushing doesn't really set me on fire. Jim Ross seems to think that Punk/Jericho will go on earlier on the WM card so that these two don't have time restrictions. It's a nice thought considering Undertaker/HHH and Rock/Cena will probably have 30 minutes or more for their matches. I've always been of the opinion that a championship match should always go last at WrestleMania, but I guess we'll see.

Percentage chance they win: CM Punk (75%) – Chris Jericho (25%)

World Heavyweight Championship

Daniel Bryan (c) vs. Sheamus

Bryan and Sheamus are building this confrontation nicely. Bryan has developed into a great character and I hope that win or lose, WWE sticks with him as a main event heel.

Percentage chance they win: Daniel Bryan (50%) – Sheamus (50%)

John Cena vs. The Rock

The build up for this continues to take up a lot of time on RAW but I have yet to feel the anticipatory buzz that something like this match should evoke. One more RAW to go.

Percentage chance they win: John Cena (40%) – The Rock (60%)

Hell in a Cell - The End of an Era

Undertaker vs. Triple H

Special Guest Referee: Shawn Michaels

It does seem likely that this will be the last time Undertaker and Triple H will be in the ring together. It is becoming increasingly clear that both Undertaker and Triple H won't be returning to a full time schedule. Like last year, I expect this to be a classic.

Percentage chance they win: Undertaker (100%) – Triple H (0%)

Intercontinental Championship

Cody Rhodes (c) vs. Big Show

My prediction is the Cody Rhodes has a very big year after WrestleMania. A World Championship is in his future.

Percentage chance they win: Cody Rhodes (30%) – Big Show (70%)

Kane vs. Randy Orton

Kind of a disappointing slot for Randy to end up in after he carried SmackDown for most of the year. It's nice that Kane didn't get lost in the shuffle upon his return as well. After a high profile feud with John Cena, working with Orton is a lateral move. I don't expect this to be a memorable match, but at least they get some one on one attention. As opposed to the next match...

Percentage chance they win: Kane (30%) – Randy Orton (70%)

General Manager 12 Man Tag Team for Control of RAW and SmackDown

Team Johnny vs. Team Teddy

Team John Laurinitas: David Otunga (Captain), Mark Henry, Christian, Dolph Ziggler, Jack Swagger

Team Teddy Long: Santino Marella (Captain), R-Truth, Kofi Kingston

With WWE moving the Money in the Bank Ladder Match to its own pay-per-view, they have resorted to these thrown together matches. At least this year, there's a point to it. I hope they change the stipulations to at least be an elimination match. Team Johnny already has five out of six members and expect The Miz to join the team soon. Team Teddy looks super weak, especially with Santino as captain. Not sure who will be the last three team members, but my best guess would be Zack Ryder, The Great Khali, and Rey Mysterio. Team Teddy needs some World Championship pedigree and Mysterio (and to an extent Khali) can offer that to him.

But really, Christian, Mark Henry, Ziggler, Swagger, Truth, and Kingston deserve to have better matches.

Percentage chance they win: Team Teddy (40%) – Team Johnny (60%)

Kelly Kelly & Maria Menounous vs. Beth Phoenix & Eve

Not much of a point to this match. Gets mainstream media attention. Shouldn't go on more than 5 minutes. It should be Beth Phoenix vs. Kharma. Or Natalya. Imagine if they let the best women wrestlers actually wrestle at WrestleMania!

Percentage chance they win: Maria & Kelly (20%) – Beth & Eve (80%)

Possible:

Ok, so now who's left out? Big names such as Alberto Del Rio, The Miz, & Rey Mysterio. And all the rest including: WWE Tag Team Champions, Primo and Epico, Alex Riley, Brodus Clay, Curt Hawkins, Evan Bourne, JTG, Mason Ryan, Michael McGillicutty, Tyler Reks, Zack Ryder, Drew McIntyre, Ezekiel Jackson, Heath Slater, Hornswoggle, Hunico, Jey Uso, Jimmy Uso, Jinder Mahal, Johnny Curtis, Justin Gabriel, Sin Cara, Ted DiBiase, Trent Barreta, Tyson Kidd, Yoshi Tatsu, and most of the Divas.

It looks like del Rio may not be making a return for this year's WM. Everyone else who isn't involved in an angle yet won't really be missed. 12 days away!

WrestleMania XXVIII Countdown - 26 days

WrestleMania XXVIII

Up and down, this year’s WrestleMania seems to have a lot more to offer than last year’s dud.

WWE Championship

CM Punk (c) vs. Chris Jericho

Ever since Punk caught fire last summer, most everyone could guess that he’d find himself in the main event at WrestleMania. It’s slightly surprising that he’s going in to the show as the champion rather than chasing and challenging for it as that’s usually a little more interesting. The amazing thing about this year’s WM is that the focus of the championships seems to be on wrestling. WWE was making a push a few months ago to actually drop the association with wrestling and focus more on the entertainment. That ill conceived plan seems to have fallen by the wayside thankfully. Both world champions, Punk and Bryan, are wrestlers at their core. So it’s nice to see this return.

Punk vs. Jericho will very much be a wrestling match, but it doesn’t hurt that they’re two of the top 5 talkers in the business today. They’re veterans who can tell a story and back it up in the ring. I expect five stars out of these two. Not a lot of build up for these two on RAW this week (or really anyone besides Rock/Cena & Taker/HHH). Time's ticking away WWE!

Percentage chance they win: CM Punk (75%) – Chris Jericho (25%)

World Heavyweight Championship

Daniel Bryan (c) vs. Sheamus

We all know Daniel Bryan can flat out ‘go’ in the ring. The worry I had when he won Money in the Bank was whether he could carry a world title convincingly since he’s undersized and was pretty vanilla. My fears have been allayed since he’s turned heel and taken a page of the Ric Flair playbook. Bryan has been doing well as the cowardly heel that does everything he can to get out of matches. Matched up against the 2012 Royal Rumble winner Sheamus, we get a repeat of their US Championship match last year (which never made it on the live show). Lately, Sheamus has taken the phrase “white meat baby face” to the next level. He’s a hit with fans, but he’s lost a lot of his edge. Technically, he still does a great job in the ring for a big guy. I think Bryan and Sheamus will put on a good show.

Percentage chance they win: Daniel Bryan (50%) – Sheamus (50%)

John Cena vs. The Rock

WWE is about to pay off the longest setup for a WrestleMania match in history. The night after WrestleMania XXVII, The Rock challenged John Cena to a match at the next WrestleMania. And it’s finally here. This match is significant in terms of wrestling history. Much like when The Rock fought Hulk Hogan at WrestleMania X-8 ten years ago, generations will be clashing in this match. The Rock was the hottest thing going in the early 2000s and Cena is the face of WWE today. Maybe at WrestleMania 38 in 2022, John Cena will be lacing up the boots on last time to take on WWE’s top guy. But for now, we get two tremendous talkers and entertainers getting ready to butt heads. You should probably strap in for a few more weeks of name calling and catchphrase trending because a physical fight is not likely to break out until they get to Florida.

I understand that having The Rock back counts double as WrestleMania's main event and celebrity integration, but devoting all this time on RAW to Rock vs. Cena build up isn't necessary. This time would be better spent building other WM matches and feuds.

Hell in a Cell

Undertaker vs. Triple H

Special Guest Referee: Shawn Michaels

I groaned when they started this feud up again. Undertaker vs. Triple H at WrestleMania: Take 3(!). This doesn’t mean that they didn’t have the best match at last year’s WrestleMania (They did!). It doesn’t mean that these legends aren’t amazing to watch (They are!). All it means it that the Undertaker’s WrestleMania Streak match is as important as any title match and Triple H’s career does not benefit from it. Think about Undertaker vs. The Miz. Or Undertaker vs. Christian. Or Undertaker vs. Alberto del Rio. Sure, nobody would believe that Taker would lose to them, but no one really believes that Triple H will get the job done either. It won’t happen and why would it? Even though the Undertaker himself has stated that he doesn’t care if WWE decides to end the streak, no one, especially Triple H who respects him too much, will want to be the one to do it. That, plus the fairly non-sensical set-up (Undertaker is the one doing the challenging? Because Triple H made it such that he had to be carried away from the ring instead of under his own power?), makes it so that the excitement isn’t there for me this year. We know that these two will tear the house down again this year especially since it’s in Hell in a Cell. And now that Hall of Famer and Mr. WrestleMania Shawn Michaels is in the match as special referee, it’ll definitely be a classic. But it could have been could have been a lot more with different players.

Percentage chance they win: Undertaker (100%) – Triple H (0%)

Intercontinental Championship

Cody Rhodes (c) vs. Big Show

I like this match. First, because this is only the second time in ten years that the Intercontinental Championship is being contested at WrestleMania (and the 21 second Mysterio vs. JBL match at WM25 barely counts). Second, because Cody Rhodes has developed into one of the smoothest and slimiest characters in WWE today. Third, because even though the Big Show is often in major matches at WrestleMania, he rarely gets a chance to shine. Here, WWE rewards his hard work with a solo match and maybe the IC title. Not bad.

Percentage chance they win: Cody Rhodes (30%) – Big Show (70%)

Probable:

The tide seems to be moving towards these probable matches:

Randy Orton vs. Kane

Not necessarily the most marquee of match ups for Orton (del Rio or The Miz would be a better fit). But this lets two veterans have the spotlight for a little while on the company's biggest night.

General Manager Winner Take All

They seem to be building towards some manner of Teddy Long vs. John Laurinitas showdown where the winner will become GM of both RAW and SmackDown. Possibly some kind of 8 man elimination match? I would put Christian, Alberto del Rio, Mark Henry, and David Otunga on Team Laurinitas against Rey Mysterio, The Great Khali, Zack Ryder, and Santino Marella for Team Teddy Long. We'll see how this develops...

Possible:

Ok, so now who's left out? Big names such as Christian, Alberto Del Rio, Mark Henry, The Miz, & Rey Mysterio. Major mid-card players like Dolph Ziggler, Jack Swagger, Kofi Kingston, & R-Truth. And all the rest including: WWE Tag Team Champions, Primo and Epico, Alex Riley, Brodus Clay, Curt Hawkins, David Otunga, Evan Bourne, JTG, Mason Ryan, Michael McGillicutty, Santino Marella, Tyler Reks, Zack Ryder, Drew McIntyre, Ezekiel Jackson, Heath Slater, Hornswoggle, Hunico, Jey Uso, Jimmy Uso, Jinder Mahal, Johnny Curtis, Justin Gabriel, Sin Cara, Ted DiBiase, Trent Barreta, Tyson Kidd, Yoshi Tatsu, and all the Divas.

If I were putting the rest of the card together, I would include:

The Miz vs. Rey Mysterio

WWE Tag Team Championship: Primo & Epico (c) vs. Dolph Ziggler & Jack Swagger vs. R-Truth & Kofi Kingston

Divas Championship: Beth Phoenix (c) vs. Kharma

OK, so let's see how things develop!

Royal Rumble 2012 - Predictions

It's that time of year. Sunday's Royal Rumble officially kicks off the Road to WrestleMania XXVIII in Miami on April 1st. Of course, the winner of the Rumble punches his ticket to a World Title match at WM28. So let's take a quick look at who the current champions are now and if they're likely to make to Miami with their titles:

WWE Champion: CM Punk

Punk caught fire in the middle of 2011 and has correctly been the focus of Monday Night RAW ever since. Given the past few months, I can't really imagine how Punk won't be in the main event at WM28. It's possible that he drops the title on Sunday to Dolph Ziggler, enters and wins the Rumble later that night, and spends the next few months building up towards winning it back. Seems overly complicated, but having the face challenge for the title makes for a better story at WrestleMania.

World Heavyweight Champion: Daniel Bryan

After cashing in Money in the Bank on the Big Show several weeks ago, Bryan has been trying to get his footing as a legit World Champion (Rey Mysterio had this problem as well). He's undersized, but incredibly talented. WWE is playing up his sneaky side and it should be enough to get him a win in a Triple Threat Steel Cage match vs. Big Show and Mark Henry. I don't see any of those three headlining WM28 so I expect to see Bryan drop the title next month at Elimination Chamber. But I've been wrong about main event material in the past. I never thought WWE would let The Miz headline with Cena last year, but it all came together.

Royal Rumble

WWE has been saying that this year "Every superstar is eligible for the Royal Rumble". I assume this means that even if you're involved in a match before the Rumble (ala John Cena, Kane, Punk, Ziggler, etc.), you can still be in the Rumble. My last count of the WWE roster has about 50 superstars. Here's my opinion on the likelihoods of them winning it all:

Can win: Alberto Del Rio, Chris Jericho, CM Punk, John Cena, Kane, Triple H, Randy Orton, Undertaker

Might win: Dolph Ziggler, The Miz, Rey Mysterio, Big Show, Christian, Daniel Bryan, Sheamus, Wade Barrett

Darkhorse: Jack Swagger, Kofi Kingston, R-Truth, Cody Rhodes, Mark Henry, Kevin Nash, Booker T

No way, no how: Alex Riley, Brodus Clay, Curt Hawkins, David Otunga, Epico, Evan Bourne, JTG, Mason Ryan, Michael McGillicutty, Mick Foley, Primo, Santino Marella, Tyler Reks, Zack Ryder, Drew McIntyre, Ezekiel Jackson, Heath Slater, Hornswoggle, Hunico, Jey Uso, Jimmy Uso, Jinder Mahal, Johnny Curtis, Justin Gabriel, Sin Cara, Ted DiBiase, Trent Barreta, Tyson Kidd, Yoshi Tatsu

Impression: With six previous Rumble winners (del Rio, Cena, Triple H, Mysterio, Orton, Undertaker) and twenty former World champions floating around this year, the winner is hard to predict. There's no clear narrative being built for a specific superstar as in previous years (Stone Cold, Chris Benoit, Triple H). I'll split my money two ways this year: Randy Orton and Chris Jericho. With a side bet on CM Punk.

However it shakes out, it's still one of the best shows of the year so get excited!